The global aviation industry is reeling. Since the U.S.-Israeli offensive against Iran began on February 28, jet fuel prices have rocketed — and passengers are now paying the price.
A gallon of jet fuel, which cost $2.50 the day before hostilities broke out, has surged to $3.93 — a staggering increase driven by one chokepoint: the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes. 
Attacks on regional refineries and the effective closure of that corridor have sent shockwaves through every airline’s balance sheet on earth.
IATA data tells the story with brutal clarity: jet fuel sat at $99.4 per barrel on February 27. By March 13, it had climbed to $175 per barrel — a 76% jump in roughly two weeks. 
Airlines scramble — and passengers absorb the hit
The response from carriers has been swift and painful for travelers.
Cathay Pacific CEO Ronald Lam confirmed the cost of fuel so far this month is double the average of the previous two months, prompting the airline to update fuel surcharges across all routes from March 18. 
Thai Airways expects airfares to rise 10% to 15%, while Qantas has already lifted prices by varying amounts depending on the route. 
The bleeding isn’t confined to Asia-Pacific. Delta CEO Ed Bastian put a hard number on it: roughly $400 million in additional costs so far this quarter. Executives at American and United reported similar figures. 
United Airlines alone spent $11.4 billion on fuel in all of 2025 — now the math has been brutally upended. 
U.S. carriers, which don’t typically use itemized fuel surcharges, are more likely to fold the costs into base fares or quietly raise fees on seat upgrades and add-ons.  The result for consumers is the same: a more expensive ticket.
Cancellations, reroutes, and a looming summer crunch
Some airlines aren’t just hiking prices — they’re cutting flights entirely. Scandinavian carrier SAS will cancel at least 1,000 flights in April, with its CEO warning of further cuts after Easter. Air New Zealand has cancelled approximately 1,100 flights through early May, affecting around 44,000 passengers. 
Lufthansa Group, KLM, and ITA Airways have all suspended Middle East routes, while Wizz Air has halted services to Israel and suspended flights to Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Amman, and Jeddah from European airports until mid-September. 
The rerouting ripple effect is driving up fares on alternative long-haul corridors, with some carriers posting eye-watering prices — Cathay Pacific recently listed business class return trips from Sydney to London in April at A$39,577. 
Hedging helps — until it doesn’t
Airlines with robust fuel-hedging programs have some insulation, but it’s wearing thin.
Analysts note that the speed and scale of this latest price spike have outpaced many hedging protections, with industry groups projecting an 8 to 9 percent rise in global ticket prices if oil remains elevated. 
Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu warned the most severe financial impact will likely hit within the next 30 to 90 days, as airlines already sold near-term tickets at far lower assumed fuel costs and cannot retroactively reprice them. 
With jet fuel now accounting for roughly a third of airline operating costs, industry experts say carriers “cannot afford to wait to upcharge their customers.” 
For now, demand is holding. Delta and American Airlines reported some of their strongest-ever single-day sales in March , as travelers rush to lock in fares before prices climb further.
But with the conflict showing no signs of resolution and summer travel season approaching, the sky is anything but the limit — it’s the floor.
